Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Supercells may develop this evening in southwest Missouri

(From the National Weather Service)

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
401 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE WILL
  DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE
  MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED THREAT
  FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST
  CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LARGE
  HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
  WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

  WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
  NIGHT...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING.

  A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS FRIDAY
  NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
  30S. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
  INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

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