Elevated tornado risk for southwest Missouri this afternoon

(From the National Weather Service)

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
730 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
  TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS
  THE KANSAS CITY AREA.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION EXPECTED
  OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
  STORMS.

  SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
  MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE ACROSS
  EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK INTO
  WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
  THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  TENNIS BALLS...WIND DAMAGE...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

  INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY THEN INCREASE
  FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST
  OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.
  THIS MAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER TRACK TORNADOES. IF
  CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT...AN
  INCREASE TO A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN
  FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

  FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING...THESE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
  START CONGEALING INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE. THIS TRANSITION IS
  EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
  CORRIDOR. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT
  LINE WINDS OVER 70 MPH WILL INCREASE. THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
  TORNADOES WITHIN ANY LINE SURGES OR BOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS
  THIS LINE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS. THIS
  LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS
  SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...BRISK AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
  ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ALL THAT
  MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO TONIGHT.