Josh Hawley, Lucas Kunce make final TV ad buys in Missouri U.S. Senate race

By Rudi Keller

Missouri Independent

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Lucas Kunce closed out his campaign with four days of television ads costing $366,000 while incumbent Republican Josh Hawley is making his final argument with $325,000 of ads during Monday night’s Kansas City Chiefs game.

Kunce and Hawley are the only candidates in a statewide election who have been airing broadcast ads continually since the August primary. Tracking by The Independent shows Hawley’s campaign has spent $5.5 million on broadcast ads, with a PAC called Show Me Strong adding $2.7 million to his quest for a second term. Kunce has spent $7.7 million on broadcast ads, with a PAC called Patriots Prevail expending $373,000.

Hawley has spent almost $26 million since taking office in 2019 to retain his seat. Of that amount, $15.5 million has been spent since the start of 2023, when Kunce began his campaign. The Democrat has spent $20 million to unseat Hawley, including more than $2 million on digital messaging.

For the final 10 days of the campaign, Hawley outspent Kunce on broadcast ads, with about $971,000 in television and radio spots compared to $854,000 for the Democrat. Kunce will have more ads aired because he did not buy many ads on Monday night, where a single 30-second spot cost Hawley as much as $50,000, depending on the market.

It is a far different campaign from the 2018 election where Hawley defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill. That year, Hawley and McCaskill combined to spend about $50 million, with about $39 million raised and spent by McCaskill. Outside groups spent $76 million more, according to the campaign finance tracking site Open Secrets.

Voters have one more day of “no excuse absentee” voting on Monday before polls open at 6 a.m. Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. and anyone in line by 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote.

Voters must have a non-expired Missouri or federally-issued identification with their photo and birthdate.

To be sure of where to vote, go to the secretary of state’s website where you can check your registration and also see a sample ballot.

Along with the U.S. Senate race, every voter will have five other statewide contests on their ballot – governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state treasurer and attorney general. Except for the Republican nominee for governor, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and the Democratic contender, state Rep. Crystal Quade, the statewide campaigns have been virtually invisible on television. Kehoe purchased just under $1 million of broadcast ads that ran during the final two weeks of the campaign and Quade has put about $750,000 worth of ads on the air.

Every voter will have six statewide ballot questions to go along with the six statewide candidate campaigns. While statewide candidates haven’t had the cash to go on the air, the campaigns to convince voters to approve Amendment 2 for sports wagering, legalize abortion with Amendment 3 and approve an increase in the minimum wage on Proposition A have spent more than $100 million.

The committee backing Amendment 2, Winning for Missouri Education, raised $40.8 million, a record for a ballot measure campaign. Backers of abortion rights, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, will also break the previous record of $31 million, set in 2006, when the final accounting is made on the campaign.

The effort to defeat Amendment 3 was boosted by a late contribution of $1 million from The Concord Fund, a group associated with conservative activist Leonard Leo. The Vote No On 3 used the funds to boost a late television campaign in the St. Louis and Kansas City markets.

Every voter in the state also has a vote for the lawmaker for their district in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Missouri House. The 2nd Congressional District is the only one with a challenger airing broadcast ads against the incumbent, with Democrat Ray Hartmann, one of Missouri’s best known political commentators, challenging incumbent U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner.

While most of the 163 MIssouri House districts are also considered non-competitive between the parties — there are 53 seats where no one filed from the opposition party — there are a handful of contests that will determine if the GOP can maintain its supermajority of more than two-thirds of the seats.

Every voter will also have two Missouri Supreme Court judges, Kelly Broniec and Ginger Gooch, on their ballots for retention votes. If voters approve the appointments, each will have 12-year terms before they are on the ballot again.