Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Thunderstorms, significant lightning risk tonight for Joplin area

(From the National Weather Service)

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
127 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
  ALONG A LINE AND PUSH NORTH AND AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
  AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
  SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
  EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

  A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
  THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW OF THESE
  STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS... GENERALLY
  ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEOSHO TO VICHY MISSOURI LINE LATE TONIGHT.
  FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
  STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY THEN DEVELOP FROM
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
  NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS
  THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO TRACK INTO
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
  WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  HALF DOLLARS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

  INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  THEN DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  FROM LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
  TIME...THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS
  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK. LOCATIONS
  THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SEE A
  RISK FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK FROM NORTHERN
  OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MISSOURI ON THURSDAY.
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
  THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW.
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT
  FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
  THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST
  FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
  FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
  INTO THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
  AROUND 30 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

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