Internal poll: McCaskill up by 14 points, Nixon by 22

(From the Claire McCaskill campaign)

To:            McCaskill Campaign Leadership

From:       Kiley & Company

Re:            Tracking Survey Findings

Date:        October 26, 2012

______________________________________________________________________

We completed our latest tracking survey last night.  We interviewed a representative sample of 600 Missouri voters likely to vote in the November 6^th election, employing the same methodology we have used in all of our opinion research for the campaign. These results have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%

The partisan breakdown of this sample is 45% Republican; 38% Democratic; and 17% Independents who do not lean toward either party. The seven-point Republican advantage in party identification is very consistent with previous polls.

Senator Claire McCaskill continues to maintain a solid, double-digit lead over Todd Akin, by a margin of 53% to 39%. 

These results are essentially unchanged from our tracker of last week, when we reported a McCaskill lead of 52% to 38%.

10/25             10/18             

McCaskill                  53%                52%                 

Akin                            39                   38                  

Other                            1                      2                       

Not sure                      7                      8                      

One percent are voting for another candidate, and the remaining 7% are still uncommitted. 

Also consistent with our previous tracker, McCaskill has the nearly unanimous support of Democrats (93% to 6%), and a solid, 24-point margin among Independents (56% to 32%). 

McCaskill enjoys a 20-point lead among women, but she is also ahead by 8 points among men.

Perceptions of Akin continue to grow less favorable.

Akin’s already-poor ratings have deteriorated further in this latest measure:  only 30% of all voters have a favorable opinion of him, fully 58% now express an unfavorable impression. 

In sharp contrast, Senator McCaskill’s ratings are 51% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

McCaskill’s vote is built on huge advantages over Akin on key dimensions. 

For example, voters trust her rather than Akin to protect Social Security and Medicare by a 23-point margin.  By similar margins they see her as effective (+23), likeable (+24) and someone who cares about them (+18).

Conclusion

As we plan for the final week of the campaign, Senator McCaskill is fully in command, and we see no indication that Akin has rebounded.  Quite the contrary; his ratings are now as low as we have ever measured them.

Governor’s Race

We also looked at the race for Governor, and found that Jay Nixon enjoys a 55% to 33% lead over Republican Dave Spence.  The Governor looks to be in solid shape heading into the stretch.