To: McCaskill Campaign Leadership
From: Kiley & Company
Re: Tracking Survey Findings
Date: October 26, 2012
We completed our latest tracking survey last night. We interviewed a representative sample of 600 Missouri voters likely to vote in the November 6th election, employing the same methodology we have used in all of our opinion research for the campaign. These results have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%
The partisan breakdown of this sample is 45% Republican; 38% Democratic; and 17% Independents who do not lean toward either party. The seven-point Republican advantage in party identification is very consistent with previous polls.
Senator Claire McCaskill continues to maintain a solid, double-digit lead over Todd Akin, by a margin of 53% to 39%.
These results are essentially unchanged from our tracker of last week, when we reported a McCaskill lead of 52% to 38%.
McCaskill 53% 52%
Akin 39 38
Other 1 2
Not sure 7 8
One percent are voting for another candidate, and the remaining 7% are still uncommitted.
Also consistent with our previous tracker, McCaskill has the nearly unanimous support of Democrats (93% to 6%), and a solid, 24-point margin among Independents (56% to 32%).
McCaskill enjoys a 20-point lead among women, but she is also ahead by 8 points among men.
Perceptions of Akin continue to grow less favorable.
Akin’s already-poor ratings have deteriorated further in this latest measure: only 30% of all voters have a favorable opinion of him, fully 58% now express an unfavorable impression.
In sharp contrast, Senator McCaskill’s ratings are 51% favorable and 43% unfavorable.
McCaskill’s vote is built on huge advantages over Akin on key dimensions.
For example, voters trust her rather than Akin to protect Social Security and Medicare by a 23-point margin. By similar margins they see her as effective (+23), likeable (+24) and someone who cares about them (+18).
As we plan for the final week of the campaign, Senator McCaskill is fully in command, and we see no indication that Akin has rebounded. Quite the contrary; his ratings are now as low as we have ever measured them.
We also looked at the race for Governor, and found that Jay Nixon enjoys a 55% to 33% lead over Republican Dave Spence. The Governor looks to be in solid shape heading into the stretch.