Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Strong thunderstorms, significant lightning risk possible tonight

(From the National Weather Service)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
OZARK PLATEAU REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASING WIND AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.

A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A LIMITED AND BRIEF RISK
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR EAST OF OUR AREA.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI.

AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
DEVELOP FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH OCCUR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

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