Oklahoma releases modeling forecasting COVID-19 pandemic through May 1

(From the Oklahoma State Department of Health)

On the heels of more than 22,000 specimens tested for COVID-19 in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) released today its modeling to forecast how the COVID-19 pandemic could occur in the state through May 1.

Authored by Aaron M. Wendelboe, PhD; Justin Dvorak, PhD; and Michael P. Anderson, PhD, the COVID-19 modeling identifies the following key metrics for Oklahoma:

Date of peak: April 21

· Number of New Cases at the Peak: 436
· Number of Deaths at the Peak: 22

· Number of New Hospitalizations at the Peak: 131
· Number of People in the Hospital for COVID at the Peak: 915
· Number of People in the ICU for COVID at the Peak: 458

Cumulative Number of COVID-19-positive cases by May 1: 9,300

Cumulative Number of Deaths by May 1: 469 deaths

“Over the past week, Oklahoma has significantly increased COVID-19 testing data due to expanded capacity at labs and more than 80 mobile testing locations across the state,” said Dr. Aaron Wendelboe, interim state epidemiologist. “This new data gave our team of epidemiologists stronger insight to forecast a COVID-19 model for the State of Oklahoma. At this point, we are estimating that Oklahoma will hit peak demand on hospitals, ICU beds, and other critical medical supplies around April 21.”

A copy of OSDH’s COVID-19 forecasting can be read by clicking here, which includes charts and an explanation of modeling methodology.