Friday, May 09, 2014

Supercells possible Saturday in Joplin area

(From the National Weather Service)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
  THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
  THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHERE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THERE IS THEN A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
  MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT. IF STORMS DO
  DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALONG
  WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

  ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM
  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND
  THREAT AREAS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
  TUESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND END
  THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  AND THE EASTERN OZARKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

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