Wednesday, October 12, 2016

New poll: Blunt clings to narrow lead, Access Hollywood video has no effect on Trump lead

(From the Monmouth University Polling Institute)

Donald Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Missouri. A priorMonmouth University Poll found the presidential race here in a virtual tie in August. Republican U.S. Senator Roy Blunt now has an insignificant 2 point lead in his bid for a second term, which is down from his 5 point advantage two months ago. The biggest voter shift, though, has come in the race for governor, where Republican Eric Greitens has cut Democrat Chris Koster's 11 point summer lead down to a narrow 3 point edge now.

Among Missouri voters likely to cast ballots in November's presidential election, 46% currently support Trump and 41% back Clinton. Another 5% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 2% back the Green Party's Jill Stein, and 5% are undecided. In Monmouth's August poll, Trump had 44% support and Clinton had 43% support.

White men prefer the GOP nominee by a 62% to 26% margin while white women are evenly divided at 42% for Trump and 42% for Clinton. Trump's current lead among white men is larger than in August when it was 45% to 37%, but he is doing worse among white women compared to his 54% to 36% advantage in August. Clinton leads by 68 points among non-white voters (81% to 13%), which is basically unchanged from August (78% to 13%).

"The gender difference among white voters in Missouri is pretty much in line with Trump's support in other states now," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. [Note: about one-third of the interviews were conducted before Sunday night's debate.]

Missouri voters give nearly identical ratings to the two major party nominees and these results are largely unchanged since August. Just 32% have a favorable opinion of Trump and 56% have an unfavorable view, compared with his 33% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating two months ago. Similarly, 30% have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 59% have an unfavorable view, compared with her 32% favorable and 56% unfavorable rating in the prior poll.

"Voter opinion of these two candidates has been baked in for some time. The Access Hollywood revelation does not seem to have had an impact. That's probably because few voters were actually surprised to hear Trump say these things," said Murray.

A majority of likely voters (57%) have watched or listened to the graphic recording of Trump released on Friday and another 33% have read or heard about its contents. More than 2-in-3 voters (70%) - including 75% of Clinton voters and 66% of Trump voters - say they were not really surprised by what they heard come out of Trump's mouth. Only 5% say they were shocked and 14% say they were surprised but not shocked.

One-third of voters (35%) feel what Trump said in that tape makes him unfit for office while 51% say his words were inappropriate but not necessarily disqualifying. Ten percent are not familiar with the recording.

Still, Clinton has an advantage when it comes to being seen as having the right temperament to serve as president. A majority (52%) say she does while fewer (38%) say the same about Trump.

"The recently released tapes and Trump's temperament in general are not disqualifying factors for a significant chunk of Missouri voters," said Murray.

The Show Me State's U.S. Senate race has tightened since the summer, but it is not clear if Roy Blunt's support of Trump has been a factor. The Republican incumbent holds a narrow 46% to 44% lead over his Democratic challenger, Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander. Another 3% say they will vote for Libertarian Jonathan Dine and 7% are undecided. Blunt held a 48% to 43% lead over Kander in August.

Blunt decided to stand by his endorsement of Trump in the aftermath of last week's controversy. It does not appear to be having much impact on his support because only 30% of likely voters are aware of Blunt's endorsement in the first place - and those aware of the endorsement are more likely to be Democrats (40%) than either Republicans (27%) or independents (25%).

Taking into account that the vast majority are not aware of Blunt's endorsement, just 20% of all likely voters in Missouri say the senator has been too supportive of Trump, 12% say he has not been supportive enough, 24% say he has given Trump the right amount of support, and 44% have no opinion on Blunt's level of support.

More Missouri voters say Blunt should stand by his endorsement of Trump (46%) than say he should take it back (35%). This opinion is reversed, however, among the one-third of voters who are considered to be moveable - including those who are currently undecided, those who prefer a third party candidate, and those who support either Blunt or Kander but say they could change their minds before the election. More of these "soft" voters actually say Blunt should retract his endorsement of Trump (43%) than say he should stand by it (31%). At the same time, the vast majority of Blunt's "firm" supporters (80%) want him to stick with Trump, while a smaller majority of Kander's "firm" supporters (61%) think Blunt needs to recant his endorsement.

"Blunt is in a bit of a Catch-22 here. Many voters who could swing this election take a dim view of his Trump endorsement. On the other hand, a significant portion of his base would not react well if the incumbent turned his back on their party's presidential nominee," said Murray. "The question is whether Kander can take advantage of this since his first step would be educating voters that Blunt endorsed Trump in the first place."

Blunt earns a positive job rating from Missouri voters - 42% approve and 37% disapprove, which is slightly less positive than his 45% approve and 35% disapprove rating two months ago. Voters are more divided on their personal opinion of Blunt - 32% have a favorable view and 33% hold an unfavorable opinion, compared with August's 33% favorable and 28% unfavorable rating. The challenger Kander is less well-known, earning a 33% favorable and 14% unfavorable personal rating, compared to his 29% favorable and 9% unfavorable rating in Monmouth's prior poll.

The Monmouth University Poll finds the contest to replace outgoing governor Jay Nixon has tightened since the summer. Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster now holds a narrow 46% to 43% lead over political newcomer and former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Cisse Spragins and 8% are undecided. Koster enjoyed a much larger 51% to 40% advantage in August.

Koster has slightly stronger support among Democratic voters (88%) than Greitens does among Republicans (80%), but independents are divided at 42% for Koster and 41% for Greitens. In August, independent voters preferred Koster by a sizable 49% to 37% margin.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 9 to 11, 2016 with 406 Missouri residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of ±4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party?

[ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

46% Donald Trump

41% Hillary Clinton

5% Gary Johnson

2% Jill Stein

1% (VOL) Other candidate

5% (VOL) Undecided



3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Roy Blunt the Republican, Jason Kander the Democrat, or Jonathan Dine the Libertarian? [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Roy Blunt or Jason Kander?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

46% Roy Blunt

44% Jason Kander

3% Johnathan Dine

<1 br="" candidate="" other="">
7% (VOL) Undecided



4. If the election for governor was today, would you vote for Eric Greitens the Republican, Chris Koster the Democrat, or Cisse Spragins the Libertarian? [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Eric Greitens or Chris Koster?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

43% Eric Greitens

46% Chris Koster

2% Cisse Spragins

0% (VOL) Other candidate

8% (VOL) Undecided

Regardless of who you may support for president…

[ QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED ]

5. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

32% Favorable

56% Unfavorable

13% No opinion



6. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?

30% Favorable

59% Unfavorable

11% No opinion



[ QUESTIONS 7 & 8 WERE ROTATED ]

7. Regardless of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not have the right temperament to be president?

38% Does

57% Does not

6% (VOL) Don't know



8. Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does not have the right temperament to be president?

52% Does

43% Does not

5% (VOL) Don't know



Turning to the Senate race…

[ QUESTIONS 9 & 10 WERE ROTATED ]

9. Is your general impression of Roy Blunt favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

32% Favorable

33% Unfavorable

35% No opinion



10. Is your general impression of Jason Kander favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

33% Favorable

14% Unfavorable

53% No opinion



11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Roy Blunt is doing as U.S. senator?

42% Approve

37% Disapprove

21% (VOL) No opinion



12. Is Roy Blunt too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or does he give the right amount of support to Trump?

20% Too supportive

12% Not supportive enough

24% Right amount of support

44% (VOL) Don't know



13. Have you heard that Roy Blunt endorsed Donald Trump for president, or were you not aware of that?

30% Heard

70% Not aware



14. Should Blunt take back his endorsement of Trump or not?

35% Should

46% Should not

19% (VOL) Don't know



15. A recording of Trump talking about some of his sexual encounters emerged on Friday. Have you heard about this or not? [ IF HEARD : Have you watched or listened to the actual recording or did you just hear or read reports about what he said?]

57% Watched/listened to actual recording

33% Heard/read reports about it

10% Not aware of recording



16. Does what Trump said on this recording make him unfit for office or is what he said inappropriate but it does not necessarily make him unfit for office?

35% Makes him unfit for office

51% Inappropriate but not necessarily unfit

2% (VOL) Neither

2% (VOL) Don't know

10% Not aware of recording



17. Would you describe your reaction to Trump saying these things as shocked, surprised but not shocked, or not really surprised?

5% Shocked

14% Surprised but not shocked

70% Not really surprised

0% (VOL) Don't know

10% Not aware of recording



METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 9 to 11, 2016 with a random sample of 406 likely Missouri voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 355 drawn from a list of registered voters (204 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 51 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). 

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Every other poll has Trump losing almost double digits. And just wait until the rape thing starts to gain traction. And just a little while ago another video of him was released saying some pretty disgusting things. Stay tuned...more to come I'm sure.

Anonymous said...

Blunt does not live in Missouri and hasn't lived here for years. Of course, I doubt that will even matter to his redneck base.

Anonymous said...

Every other poll has Trump losing almost double digits.

Not true as of the latest RCP poll collection, which when averaged has Hillary 6.2 points ahead.

But something did happen to the public polling trend, although at least one of the post-tape polls was bogus, over represented by Democrats. A lot of these public polls are intended to affect public perceptions, as they have done for you, and only move towards accuracy just before the election so they can't as easily be accused of this.

So one should also watch the campaigns, which run off the most accurate private polls they can procure, and try to discern if they think they're winning or losing.

Anonymous said...

Blunt does not live in Missouri and hasn't lived here for years. Of course, I doubt that will even matter to his redneck base.

Why would or should it, if he does a good job of representing our interests in D.C.?

The problem, of course, is not where "he lives" so much as him being part of a national GOP establishment (GOPe) that's part of what many call the Uniparty, which actively hates us, and, if he's saying the right things to the GOPe, ignores him.

The path to sanity for us "rednecks" is through replacing enough of the GOPe that we actually have our interests represented in D.C., and Blunt, whether good or bad, is likely to be a causality of that. Which I'd normally say means he'd be sent back home to spend more time with his family, but since so many of those are lobbyists and the like, the whole bunch needs to retire from public life and find something better to do.

A lot of the opposition to Trump is that he threatens the cozy lifestyles the GOPe has arranged for themselves, and is less and less beholden to them as they more and more openly oppose him. This is not a bug but a feature, as long as he manages to pull off a win come November.

Anonymous said...

I can't vote for Trump but not for the reason you think. Personally I could care less if he gropes your wife or daughters, hey there are plenty of sex offenders around. What I do have a problem with is the election of a deadbeat to the office. You see, as a Christian, I worship money and have absolutely no use for a guy who will not pay his bills.