Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Potential for large hail, damaging winds in Joplin area tonight

(From the National Weather Service)

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
552 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED FOG RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN AREAS THAT
  RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN
  ONE MILE AT TIMES.

  A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
  AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODEST WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
  BE AVAILABLE TO STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A RISK FOR SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60
  CORRIDOR. INITIAL STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUPERCELLS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ALONG
  WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES
  CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

  FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...STORM MODE WILL
  LIKELY TRANSITION TO LINE SEGMENTS. THE PRIMARY RISK FOR SEVERE
  WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
  EVENING WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT SURGE OR BOW TO THE
  NORTHEAST.

  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG
  AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH THIS SYSTEM
  THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
  FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


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