KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032100- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 353 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED TORNADO RISK. SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. ELEVATED FLOODING RISK. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED TO ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GIRARD KANSAS TO FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED FOR ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK EAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES. IN ADDITION TO ANY SUPERCELLS...THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS WILL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY LINE SEGMENTS BOWING TOWARDS THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN.
This blog features observations from Randy Turner, a former teacher, newspaper reporter and editor. Send news items or comments to rturner229@hotmail.com
Thursday, April 02, 2015
Severe thunderstorms, elevated tornado risk tonight
(From the National Weather Service)
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